tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg October 13, 2017 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
top stories we are covering from the bloomberg and around the world. we've learned that the ecb may cut qb flow and half next year. -- qe flow in half next year. cut qb flow and half next year. president trump is due to decertify iran's nuclear program. we explore what it means for companies looking to do business in iran. and more questions are swirling around former berkeley chief executive. does guggenheim inappropriate was beer muncher -- beer money in its ventures. european equities are trading 30 minutes until the end of the friday session, we are up for the day, the best run in over
two years. led by luxembourg and austria. today --is writing rising today against the dollar. i said we would talk austria. even the chance of the far right party getting into power in sunday's austrian election isn't expected to spoil the run for investors in europe's best-performing developed stock market this year. the conservative people's party, the leader in the opinion polls, is expected to form a governing fact -- packed with the national freedom party. dropping the anti-e.u. rhetoric of the past from its platform. the partnership is broadly benefiting the austrian trade index. the white line on the top charts right there. helping extend the 27% run this year by bringing about corporate
and wage tax cuts that would s lash tax bills and boost investor demand. 5% stoxx europe is up by valuation. the atf, 14 times earning the stoxx 600. more than 15 times earnings. china overseas shipments rising from a year earlier, narrowly missing estimates on the later cited -- on the latest sign that asian traders holding up. up bytember, imports 18.7%. the blue line in the white line exports the trade balance the bars on this chart, demand for chinese products has proven robust, though this trade report also getting a boost from a comparison with a low base last year. exporter tobiggest
uncertainty amid trade restrictions with the u.s. and the north korea nuclear tensions. sticking with emerging markets, weathering political turbulence, the prospect of tightening monetary policy is about to get tougher, according to 17 investors in a survey on the outlook for the rest of the year. south korea's bonds were the least favorite, and south africa came at the bottom. by contrast, russia and brazil have the best prospects for bonds in currencies, argentina and india have the brightest outlook for equities. equities this year in emerging markets of by 26%. currencies of by 620%, the best years since 2009. 90 minutes into the trading day in the u.s.. how's it looking? julie: stocks hanging on to, records for the major averages with the nasdaq outperforming at large cap technology does
better. we saw this morning interest in inflation data on the consumer price index front, coming in lower than estimated. we saw a drop in yields. all of that is playing out in the stock market as well. bloomberg, we the have groups that are on the move. materials doing the best today, and technology. technology more heavily weighted, which helps matters. health care on the bottom as we talk about the continuing repercussions of the trumpet ministrations ran to cut back on health care subsidies. that is definitely getting health care. i want to focus on materials for a moment. we are seeing a pretty broad andy in commodities, metal agriculture as well. on the agricultural front, we have mosaic and that are both corning, as we see climb after the latest usda crop report. monsanto participating in the ad
rally as well. -- ag rally as well. u.s. steel is higher. you see eclipse as an iron ore producer surging more than 9%. it has to do with china, as you just heard mark talking about what happened with china imports, specifically iron ore imports. take a look at the bloomberg. we have iron ore imports, the white line surging 100 million to a record that surpasses the previous set in 2015. china has been placing some restrictions on steelmaking in for pollution related reasons, to reduce pollution. there's demands now for higher great iron ore from abroad. china is also restricting domestic steelmaking, not just for pollution reasons, but there is less steelmaking going on in china right now. they are importing higher grades.
you have iron ore at various prices on the bottom. it not been doing well recently, but now seeing a rebound on this and then trickling through to the steelmakers an iron ore producers as well. the ecb could be inching closer to make the long-awaited change. we are learning some exclusive bloomberg reporting the central bank officials considering cutting their monthly bond buying by at least half starting in january. policy could reach agreement on just how much debt the european euro area central banks will buy , if the ecb's october meeting. alessandra, is there any to stipulate that it will end in september? is that causing some division within the ecb? >> it's quite clear that decision would be reached in october. whetheratter perceptions may be, everyone is quite an agreement that they
want to exit the carla program very gradually and carefully. not to jeopardize the progress. our reporting has shown that this compromise might lead to extend the program for nine months at the pace of 30 billion euros per month, which is par for what's been happening so far. vonnie: how would it be distributed among countries? we've already seen the ecb run up against its limits. you see the p is very different for different countries. alessandro: the ecb has been size and the economic the populace never country. this is a hard limit and it's very unlikely they will reflect this. distributed onbe this, and depending on availability.
mark: giving an end date to the program, september 2018. are we hearing the whole of the ecb is behind that? or is that according some division? but september could well be the end date. alessandro: that's probably way too early to say. what's clear that from other reporting that there is some division within the firm end date for the program. when he gets to september, will there be some tapering? what will be sure is the ecb will keep rates unchanged for quite a long time. this is something that policymakers want. having a longer tapering already proves the rate increase or wetland 2019. into 2019.
mark: alessandro speciale, thank you. richard, given the euro was earlier,anged, up .4% what does that tell us about the market reaction to this bloomberg-based story today? richard: not only is the euro holding income equities are doing pretty well. , the core and periphery are doing well on the back of this. there's not been a market disruption. from the ecb perspective, they are pretty happy with the results of the way the market has been digesting this reporting from bloomberg. mark: after the ecb will be happy with the way the spanish bond market has digested the last couple of weeks, post catalonia referendum. are there risks for the spanish bond market, richard, going
forward? given that monday is the next key date in this catalonia referendum saga? richard: i don't think you want to rule out risk completely, but i think the reaction we've seen so far is probably giving us an indication of the way investors are going to treat this going forward. it's been a slight disruption, not a major one. and the fact that the ecb is still providing that backstop really does give some support to the spanish bond market. vonnie: it is so interesting that ray dalio is taking this position against italian banks. i don't know if you saw that story just cannot little while ago. it's a pretty big position. but the ecb as they are, and even if they are meant to be in banks, they have said it off so banks are not going to fail. richard: i think the ecb's backstop is quite powerful. if you look at the fact that he
is making, it's under $1 billion, and they have about $160 billion in assets under management. it's not a really big chunk of their cash file. i think it's looking at being selective and not committing too much. supportingthere and the european banking sector. and that includes italy. vonnie: if the ecb keeps this program even half the size, 30 billion a month for the next nine months, is that going to be enough to prove inflation? it hasn't been, so far. richard: that's the big question. people smarter than me will be able to answer that question. it's been a bit of a conundrum for policymakers everywhere. the ecb is is flummoxed by it as the federer and others. i think the hope is this will finally start to get some traction, in terms of inflation heading more towards target, but so far, it's been a little bit
elusive for the ecb and also for the fed. on marketsrd jones live, at 11:41 today. there are indications the brexit taxable we get worse in at some point, that's likely to show up in measures of fx volatility. why hasn't it shown up yet? richard: i think it hasn't shown up yet, mark, because there's been a feeling that things are going to be negatively impacted by brexit. i think everyone who thought that has had their fingers burned a little bit. as we go forward, we are six months or seven months into the two-year process of article 50 and as that date approaches and we don't get a deal, i think the fx volatility could actually inch higher because we get closer to that cliff edge brexit and that's a big concern for everybody. up until now, people have been able to avoid it.
but as the clock ticks forward, it's going to be unavoidable. say in this 1141 piece, you talk about how angela merkel is distracted and we have to look within the potential coalition options, because they are not going to bend over backwards either to accommodate the u.k. richard: no, i don't think brexit will feature very highly on the list of priorities for angela merkel. but also for coalition partners. i think before the election, you had other party saying they would welcome scotland back into the eu should they decide to separate from the u.k. after brexit. that's not exactly music to theresa may's ears. at least we think this new coalition won't be as accommodative to the u.k. as many in the u.k. believe. mark: richard jones, bloomberg markets live fx and rates strategist. the ubs chairman joins us later today.
with storm clouds gathering in europe, 2:30 p.m. in new york, 7:30 p.m. in london. let's check in on first word news, courtney donohoe is here with more. courtney: president trump says it's the time for the entire world to join the u.s. in putting pressure on iran. he is expected to disavow the iran nuclear deal, but he won't abandon it. he will refuse to certify that dealultinational sufficiently serves u.s. interests and last congress to amend and. susan collins is staying in the senate, staying speculative a possible run for governor. she's one of the few gop centrists and believes she can by remainingaine in washington. receipt is up for reelection in 2020. estelle the deadliest week of fires in california history, at least 31 people have been killed by wildfires raging through northern california's wine country.
hundreds of people are still missing in the city of santa rosa alone, almost 3000 homes were destroyed and high wind are keeping firefighters from containing the fires. ireland could be hit by a hurricane on monday. hurricane ophelia is a category two storm with top wind of 100 miles an hour. it could become the strongest storm destroyed ireland since 1961. one forecaster says the hurricane could cost ireland almost $800 billion in damage. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. mark: courtney, thank you. coming up, brexit hitting a rough patch after the breakout talks and ended in a deadlock. the eu commissioner for economic and financial affairs says the eu's position is clear. more on that conversation, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, on vonnie quinn. mark: live from london, i am mark barton. counting down to the european close. the next it's over exit hang in the balance after talks ended in a deadlock. the european commissioner for economic and financial affairs spoke to bloomberg's tom keene about the eu position at the imf's annual meeting in washington. clear,position is very it's a divorce that needs to be a good divorce, with a strong relationship after the divorce. but discuss the future relationship between you and u.k., and u.k. will be a european country, even if not
inside the eu, we still need to show the issues on the table. and the first thing is we need to have a strong, precise, definite discussion about the financial settlement and also about citizens rights. first things first, in the future, -- tom: do you need a more like a courtalogue process in divorce or something squishy like american arbitration in divorce? what you need from the british? more precision and iq dialogue? -- and acute dialogue? >> everyone appreciated the progress because the ideal transition and the reaction by all eu stakeholders was it's getting better. but everybody said at this time we need to move from the speech, which is good, to a precise proposal and we are still
waiting for them. and this is why yesterday we had to say that there was not perception -- sufficient progress to move forward. ,n the two months to come progress is possible. tom: they can be decided outside the courtroom as well. with what a drive this dialogue for europe? you represent the voice of the european union, or will it be driven by the state leaders, angela merkel? >> have a very precise organization and our british friends are aware of that. negotiator, the acts in the name of all the commission. he is a friend, but i'm not negotiating with his counterpart. he only represents the commission and he's been recommended by the european the british side
must know that the very clear position and there are talks of united will stay so. tom: bank of america decided to moving bodies from london to paris. everyone wants to live in paris. are we going to see more people in london in the city make the choice to move to paris? today, brussels is not paris, but paris is a fantastic city. what is clear is through this shift, there's amsterdam in berlin another centers and also spain, you can see how necessary it is for these banks to have a very strong foot inside the eurozone. this is why i'm a very strong advocate of the eurozone. i think after the brexit, euro will be 85% of gdp of eurozone as a whole. mark: the european commissioner for economics and financial
affairs. as we head to the close, here's a look at germany. the benchmark in germany surging to a record. gainers,ong the big contributing to the record rise. which i can on the closing number just a few minutes. perhaps president trump will refer to it. he likes his records in the stock market. president trump is expected to decertify the nuclear agreement with iran today. how will iran itself respond? that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪
flash, to look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. wells fargo has gotten hit by bad behavior in the housing bubble after almost a decade after it happened. the bank had a surprise $1 billion charge previously disclosed mortgage related investigations. wells fargo reported earnings that were less than expected. bank of america posted its highest rating in six years. chief executive brian morning hands efforts to boost profits through cost-cutting finally got some help from interest rates. net incomenses and was the highest since 2011. u.s. relators are looking into with the guggenheim partners inappropriately steered client money into businesses run by former barclays chief executive bob diamond. broadert of a examination of guggenheim that regulars were looking into diamond on his company. more on this story, coming up later this hour.
that's your latest bloomberg business flash. to go to where european markets are trading. we are heading to the close. stocks are higher, not higher in london today. higher sterling, weaker ftse. for thet the currency euro is up against the dollar today. the day and for the week. i'm going to leave you with the bond board. year,got the u.k. 10 german ten-year, spanish 10-year and italian 10 year. yields lower today, the big bloomberg story is ecb officials considering cutting monthly bond buying by half starting in january and keeping the program active. this is bloomberg. ♪
week, the best run since march 2015. one of the big gains today, man group up i 15%. the biggest publicly traded hedge fund firm reported a net increase of $2.8 billion in the first quarter. they are allocating capital to the emerging-market debt fund at radically low-cost investment strategies. a total of $38.7 million was allocated last year to the money polls. this year through august, after $112 billion was pulled over all of last year, that's the hedge fund industry in its entirety, man group also announcing plans to buy back as much as million dollars worth of shares and said it will explore further acquisitions. this is euro against the dollar headed for the first weekly gain in three after the worst losing run since april 7. ecb officials considering cutting their monthly bond buying by at least half starting in january and keeping that program active for at least nine months, according to officials
familiar according to sean callow, senior currency strategist at west bank. that's likely to be further upside for the euro if the dollar is set to ease slightly, focusing on the tapering prospects will intensify. he says $1.20 looks like an electric fence for the ecb. $1.18 is where we are today. japanjapan closing at a $19 96 h for a third day. the best run since december 2016. from the highs of late 1989, still 50% below those levels. breaking news. trump hasesident disavowed the iran nuclear deal without yet acquitting the multinational accord. that's very important. he has refused to recertify iran
, which you must do every 90 days. he hasn't yet quit the accords, he's due to speak in the next hour, so we want to get more on what's actually happening. we have a bloomberg years reporter visiting from tehran and jonathan ferris for bloomberg news. if we have this disavowal of the nuclear deal, which we were anticipating to a certain extent, how will tehran react? >> i think a lot of officials in tehran were obviously expecting a position like this from donald trump. underlines this kind of policy of keeping things liberally vague and ambiguous. underlines this kind ofall trump's had that sine first took office. i'm not sure if we're going to see reaction tonight in tehran or over the next few days.
we probably see that strong rhetoric that's been coming out from tehran over the past week and that's repeating some of these lines about making sure the iranians can keep their interest in the region. that's what the iranians are going to say. we've heard them say things like the americans need to take your bases are the region back within a certain radius of iran's ballistic positions, and they will be these lines again until see aon, i think we will more measured response from the iranian government. the right now, the statement that we've had, disavowal is a couple of steps behind from actual decertification. in some ways, that works to the advantage of the iranians, because it underscores this idea that they've been promoting that the trump administration doesn't have a position, he doesn't
really know what it wants to do. and keeping things liberally vague. mark: this -- deliberately vague. mark: how will this statement of disavowal be received by the other nations? golnar: i'm guessing with frustration. they've made huge efforts and the, from macron germans come efforts to discourage and dissuade the u.s. from decertification, and from triggering a process that would eventually lead to their defective withdrawal from the deal. i think the statement of disavowal stop them from doing that. what it does is it keeps the nuclear deal on this even keel uncertainty. general, that's not a good thing. iny obviously want to work an environment of certainty and trust, and i think the europeans want that as well. in the favorwork
of that had a situation. mark: is a gamble that congress will give this administration, trump, more time to pressure other nations for new constraints on iran. is it a big gamble? other european countries have been very clear that they are going to follow this and stick with the deal the matter what the u.s. says. businessman or a company investing in iran, that's where the gamble is. do you dare continue with a planned investment in iran? probably would do short-term turnarounds for selling airlines airplanes, but if you are businesso relationships like banking and other areas, you might be much more reluctant now, with all that much more uncertainty about giving further entangled in a country that might be on the
blacklist again pretty soon. vonnie: i asked senator ben cardin of maryland yesterday what congress is next move would be, were this to happen. is it the full non-recertification, and does it allow congress? >> that's the problem. we don't know how congress will respond because we don't know how the international community will respond. what the president is going to be asking if the reports are accurate is for america to stay in the agreement, not to have the sanctions come back in, but congress has the next noted process that's unclear how to congress will respond. senators, what happens monday, the house is off next week? nejra: we are in --jonathan: we are in limbo now. in the broader geopolitical situation, this is adding more uncertainty into the mix that we have right now. , this is not really
what people want to hear. they wanted a sense that this massive market with all of this potential would be opened up again and is probably will continue for the next two years. vonnie: it's fascinating. congress can't reimpose sanctions without blowing up a multilateral accord with the european union and china and all these other countries. is not just iran and will respond, it's always other countries. jonathan: it's part of a much broader narrative of the u.s. pulling out of these international commitments. we saw with tpp with the trump administration came in, was with the paris accord and now with the iranian deal. the broader messages we are seeing america retreat under the trump administration and whatever congress does, it's a signal from the administration to the rest of the world that we are not -- you cannot expect us, you cannot rely on the u.s. to stick with these agreements that have been such a cornerstone of
foreign policy for the last 25, 30 years. mark: is obvious that iran will refuse to change the 2016 accord -- 2015 accord, if trump's goal is to build a separate deal outside the original deal, maybe targeting perceived flaws. is that realistic? golnar: i think it very much depends on what the europeans and russians and china will say about this, just emphasizing this point. it's a multilateral agreement and iran's foreign minister has said this. the eu foreign invoice at this. it's about eight or countries, it's not about one country. and iran is really doubling down on those relationships. the relationship with russia and china, deals with france, with french companies like cytotec.
iran is really focusing on these. iranian officials have recently really played out what they've said is a lack of concern from these companies. they are being bullish and saying we are not concerned, these companies are not concerned. france is still sticking with us, china and the russians are staying with us. the chinese were with us during sanctions. they stuck around. they are going to hang around for even longer. this is the climate that iranian officials are projecting at the moment. there's also this idea that perhaps the europeans might want deal,ate -- on a separate but straying from the existing ones. ap four plus one agreement which would try to save what's left to keep iran in a situation where it keeps committing to its obligations. that, andere is
europeans and others feel like iran has kept its end of the bargain so far and they don't want to rock any boats. president clinton is going to iran soon and he doesn't want any boats -- president clinton -- president putin is going to iran soon, and he doesn't want any boats rocked. if these activities were ignored, anything from funding has lots of other organizations. jonathan: you can make that case. the iranians will say that wasn't part of the deal. it was a narrow deal focused on the nuclear side of things. the iranians argue why are you bringing all of this up now? you are trying to retroactively argue that the deal wasn't worth in the first place, but i think she is important point, the u.s. is pulling back from the world and that is also creating the space for china to come in and kinga, when putin is the
of the middle east now in many ways. this just increases his power and influence. while america is retreating, other powers are coming in. does not nearly have the sort of sway it had before. vonnie: secretary of state and john far andnks to golnar motevalli. stay tuned for president trump's remarks on the iran strategy, due to speak at 12:45 new york time. 5:45 in london. let's check in on the first word news with courtney donohoe. courtney: president trump has taken his most drastic steps yet to rollback obamacare. the of frustration has cut off the subsidy to insurers to help lower income people in that came just hours after the president signed an executive order designed to drive people away from the health coverage market.
it was ration is cutting tens of millions of dollars from groups that help people and role for obamacare. the u.s. cost of living rose last month by the most since january. consumer prices were up .5% due in part to a spike in fuel prices after hurricane harvey. energy, itood and was up .1%. less than excited. the european central bank may start backing off in january. the ecb is considering cutting its bond buying by at least half to $36 billion a month. bond purchases would continue to least september. the latest brexit talks ended in deadlock. another u.k. hopes european leaders will help bailout prime minister theresa may and next week's summit. that's not likely to happen. granger top european official, there is little appetite to help made. european leaders are said to make it clear there won't be any trade talks until his of brexit deal.
global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: coming up, how guggenheim partners as a chummy relationship with bob diamond and may have limited guggenheim in hot water. -- landed guggenheim in hot water. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: live from london and new york, i'm mark barton. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn, and this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." rose 2% afterr they announced the sale of its finance unit to germany's basf. this helps clear the way for a $66 billion acquisition of monsanto. joining us with maurice taylor
riggs. taylor: the company acquiring those assets, the shares were higher a little bit on their now seeing a decline as the company is have to shell out about 6 billion euro for those assets. it will help clear the way to get this year done. , theiru look at bayer share prices done pretty well since they announced the purchase. analysts coming up this morning saying this deal was good for them. not just for basf and not a surprise is a lot of divestments were expected in order to be able to get that deal done. the: tell us more about crop science building -- business they are obtaining. taylor: it's the biggest acquisition ever for basf in the herbicide business. that segment when it was a part of bayer generated $1.3 billion in revenue, going down the income statement, about 385 million euro -- i should be
saying euros. vonnie: it's becoming this anything. -- it's becoming the same thing. taylor: they are looking at that in the first quarter of 2018. that company's last opportunity to enter the seeds market that they haven't yet done that. now becoming more of a competitor. vonnie: taylor riggs, thank you. with the stock of the hour. mark: time to the bloomberg business flash come a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. the world's biggest hedge fund firm made a $713 million bet against financial stocks in italy. ray dalio's bridgewater associates spread the investment over five banks, concerned about strict ecb rules, encourage investors to shore italian banks. in sweden, the banks will need to cut jobs for the unit that handles corporate and institutional clients.
the northern reasons -- regions only systemic important bank is trying to improve competitiveness. they've notified employees involved, it's not saying how may jobs are being cut. that's the latest bloomberg business flash. vonnie: investment firm guggenheim partners under review by the sec, they are not accused of wrongdoing, but the sec is looking into whether guggenheim steered client money into businesses run on the former barclays ceo. guggenheim is a shareholder in a african services company. exactly is the sec looking at? >> what they are looking at is whether guggenheim inappropriately steered client funds into different bob diamond investments. and that's it. firmsetween bob diamond's
and guggenheim gotten so extensive that they are essentially employees of guggenheim. they are rules that in place so that companies cannot invest client funds into affiliated entities not the proper disclosures. so the managers don't invest in themselves at the expense of their clients. the review, over the last few years from 2013 to now, we found a series of investments into different bob diamond firms, hatless merchant and allison brock. what -- merchant and at and atlas. mark: how does this play into that? >> no fewer than 60 investing professionals, investment bankers and other types of more senior-level people i guggenheim have left in the last two years. also, two years ago, guggenheim of the pay of $20 million fine to the sec, given another run and where the president of guggenheim had taken a personal
loan from mike milken in order to finance and investment. vonnie: any word from bob diamond? word. a we declined to comment from all the companies in the story, so we will see how it plays out. it's early on an investigation of a very complex web of ties. we pointed out the shares have , soled to about two dollars it's not that the investment is played out so favorably in the last couple of years. mark: how to do diamond diamond get close in the first place -- how did guggenheim and diamond get close in the first place? >> he knew diamond from the 1990's and they worked together at morgan stanley and credit suisse. the relationship is built over decades. now this is an extension of that relationship as well. --nie: and all reporting phenomenal reporting. we will speak about this again. thank you.
for theit's time now battle of the charts, where we take a look at the most telling chart of the day and what they might mean for investors. even access these charts on the bloomberg by running the function featured at the bottom of your screen. kicking things off, dani burger. trumped by't getting other -- i kept getting trumped by other news.
i'm interesting sentiment indicator. i have the s&p 500 and the blue are the number of times the media mentions the phrase by the debip. it's the most times we've seen by the dip since 2002. as well as in 2008. dip.ave buy the this is when same stocks were talking, people were saying buy teh dip. g #btv 5195. vonnie: take that. mark: forget big size and small size, medium size is beautiful. 250,alking about the ftse the gauge of medium-size companies that was created in october, 1992. 25 years ago, if the white line.
since then, it's risen by 740%. line, four times the blue the ftse 100 index, small-cap indexes the aligned, which has performed about half as good as the ftse 250. this is a more domestic oriented gauge. even since brexit, it's up by 17%. this year, it's up 12%. twice as much as the ftse 100. in this case, it has to say , itum-size over one metric lags the ftse 100. that's market cap. the ftse 250 is 415 billion is 2.0 9he ftse 100 trillion pounds. who says tall is best? vonnie: bravo, mark. that was a stunning charge, but get engaged by my tone deaf mark: i know you.
vonnie: is not what if friday tied. it's friday the 13th and i may be asking for trouble, i'm going to award today's to danny. -- dani. you've been canceled how many times? dani: i got the sympathy vote. vonnie: you don't want to miss this conversation, warning about clouds gathering in europe. 2:30 in new york, 7:30 london time. up next, "real yield." this is bloomberg. ♪ retail.
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♪ lisa: with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is bloomberg real yield. ♪ lisa: coming up, what will be the pin that pops the bond market. perhaps it will be the central banks as ecb firms up its plans to taper. focusing on the risk to financial stability. the largest u.s. banks report earnings and revealing a less credit where the american consumer. how big of a concern is that for debt markets?